2012 Round 2 GH

10/2

A shocking day in Saimoe. Poplar was assassinated by people who voted for Nodoka. From the statistics, Momo voters (who have objectively good taste) favored Poplar, Ai voters were almost evenly split with Poplar ahead by one vote, and Nodoka supporters heavily backed Airi.

Why would they go out of their way to knock off Poplar, when she's in group H, which has no active Saki characters? It appears that we have an alliance between the Rie faction and Saki. Nodoka has historically been popular with Rie voters, and Saki fans have confidence that Nodoka would beat Shana if she emerges from H.

Combinations of votes:
38 votes Momo+Airi 東横桃子＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A・香椎愛莉＠ロウきゅーぶ!・
47 votes Momo+Poplar 東横桃子＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A・種島ぽぷら＠WORKING'!!・

122 votes Nodoka+Airi 原村和＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A・香椎愛莉＠ロウきゅーぶ!・
96 votes Nodoka+Poplar 原村和＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A・種島ぽぷら＠WORKING'!!・
34 votes Nodoka only 原村和＠咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A・第2試合棄権・

69 votes Ai+Airi 七咲逢＠アマガミSS+ plus・香椎愛莉＠ロウきゅーぶ!・
70 votes Ai+Poplar 七咲逢＠アマガミSS+ plus・種島ぽぷら＠WORKING'!!・

10/3

Shana wins as expected, but Senjougahara won a surprise victory over Aria, even though Aria had the Rie bonus by fighting on the same day as Shana.

10/4

Yet another surprise as Tsukihi dominates and Rea gets obliterated, despite the very different results in Round 1 and the presence of Yamada, who should have been a powerhouse but ended up with a pitiful number of votes. Where did all her fans go?

10/5

Ika was floating in a sea of fake votes. She was left high and dry when they drained away, but Atarashi decided to try something new and play the pimp this time.

Elsie made a late rush with some support from Saki fans in an attempt to cook Meat, but it wasn't quite enough. Even though Sena suffered a minor multivoting scandal in round 1, she still has plenty of men following her around.

Vote combinations:
144 Ako+Elsie
153 Ako+Sena
45 Ako+Marika
57 Ako only
75 Ika+Elsie
61 Ika+Marika
88 Ika+Sena

Sena/Elsie total ratio: 262/244 = 1.074
Sena/Elsie among Ako voters: 153/144 = 1.0625
Sena/Elsie among Ika voters: 1.173

The breakdown shows that only slightly more Saki fans than statistically expected backed Elsie, while most of them either voted randomly or ignored the other match. The 57 Ako-only voters could have pushed Elsie through if they had chosen to vote tactically.

Prediction Record: R2: 23-9, R1: 70-26