Round 3 EFGH and seal baby madoka

So I was looking at the referring search terms for traffic sources, and one of them was "seal baby madoka". Unfortunately, whoever came here looking for seal baby madoka didn't find it. Well, LET'S FIX THAT.

10/13 Predictions:
Sayaka will cut down Charlotte. Yuuko vs Shirayuki looks like a difficult match. This one is really too close to call, but since I have to pick one of them, Shirayuki has a slight statistical edge. I'll change it if Run somehow manages to beat Elsie or put up a colossal vote total, but the tracker indicates that neither is happening.

Results: Sayaka went berserk, winning 519-396. Curiously, Sayaka has had exactly 519 votes in both rounds 2 and 3. Shirayuki won the other match. Prediction Record: 2/2, 9/10 R3, 106/138 Total

10/14 Predictions:
Mami and Haqua. The Strike Witches main character just doesn't have the firepower to head off this kind of opponent, and Haqua is heavily favored over Ayumi by TWGOK fans.

Results: As expected. It was a quiet day with the TWGOK match seeing particularly low vote totals. Prediction Record: 2/2, 11/12 R3, 108/140 Total

10/15 Predictions:
Index vs Haruka is a close match, but Index has a better record so far. In the other match, Kuroneko should win easily.

Results: Index and Kuroneko without any trouble. Prediction Record: 2/2, 13/14 R3, 110/142 Total

10/16 Predictions:
In the final day of round 3, Aria H. Kanzaki is the favorite over Houki, and Kyouko will overcome Kokoro's 130,000,000,000,000,000 votes.

Results: The last day of round 3 came with a surprise: Houki beat Aria. And by no small margin: Houki scored a solid 451 votes while Aria disappointed with a mediocre 341. Although Kuroneko got by with the same 341, she did it in a walkover match. Fellow Aria character Shirayuki won with 412 to 372 over Yuuko, but Aria fell far short of Shirayuki's score. Houki's 451 beats Charlotte's 396 despite the fact that total vote volume was lower in Houki's match.

Data mining shows the following vote pairs:
315 Kyouko x Houki
167 Kokoro x Aria
164 Kyouko x Aria
128 Kokoro x Houki
53 Kyouko only
11 Kokoro only
10 Aria only
8 Houki only

The 53 Kyouko only votes stand out but not as much as the 315 KyoHo, and Aria won among Kokoro voters. There's no good tactical reason for Madoka fans to oppose Aria, Aria was leading with fake votes counted all along so IS had to go all out, and total volume is lower than the Sayaka/Charlotte match. Perhaps Houki and Kyouko just appeal to the same people. In any case, this is a sign that the Madoka and IS factions don't have animosity for each other and may overlap somewhat.

As for Kyouko's match, Kokoro posted 306 votes, a bit higher than what she got in the past, but below the expected 1,300,000,000,000,000,000. The match fit the familiar pattern of heavy fake voting followed by an explosive finish for Kyouko (just like in the anime) allowing her to win even with fakes included, except that the fakes were more spread out and looked a little less like ziggurats.

Today will also go down in history for having the highest number of votes ever cast in one saimoe match, with Kokoro vs Kyouko reaching a total of 13,000,000,000,000,000,532. This record is likely to stand for a long time, since it greatly exceeds the number of IP addresses that exist in IPv4 and the population of Earth.

Prediction Record: 1/2, 14/16 R3, 111/144 Total