Round 3 ABCD

How well did the preliminaries predict performance in the first two rounds? Let's look at the number of survivors from each rank.

1st place: 9
2nd place: 8
3rd place: 3
4th place: 3
5th place: 2
6th place: 3
7th place: 4
8th and lower: 0

Percentage of survivors that made the top two in the first preliminaries: 53.1%

10/9 Predictions:
After a day off, we'll get another dramatic match: Misaka versus Victorique. Misaka scored the highest vote total of the tournament when she made enemies of the Madoka faction and picked up Homura's "you better assassinate me before I kill your waifu" mantle. Pretty much everybody except her own fans would be well advised to stop her here, and Victorique is a powerful character who would not look out of place as a group winner. I'm expecting Misaka to receive fewer votes than she did in round 2 and be eliminated.

In group B, Erica Hartmann takes on Suzuha. This is a pretty close match, but I'm leaning towards Erica.

Results: Misaka and Erica. Misaka somehow broke 600 votes while being the target, not the beneficiary of tactical voters. It's official: Misaka Mikoto is public enemy #1. After posting the two highest scores of the tournament, she's the contestant to beat. After comparing these results to other matches, it's obvious that Biribiri does not depend on the Index faction. She's pulling in about 300 voters that don't bother with other Index characters, giving her two large non-overlapping pillars of support. That's bad news for anyone who isn't a Biribiri fan. Prediction Record: 1/2, 1/2 R3, 98/130 Total

10/10 Predictions:
Kanade will shoot down Gertrud. Although Angel Beats was looking questionable early on, they've recovered in impressive fashion in the main tournament. The more contested match will be Kurisu vs Astarotte. Astarotte is the statistical favorite.

Results: Astarotte and Kanade. Astarotte won by a very narrow margin and heads into the Biribiri match as a clear underdog, although both characters broke 400 votes, giving round 3 a trend of much higher volume than the earlier rounds. Prediction Record: 2/2, 3/4 R3, 100/132 Total

10/11 Predictions:
Madoka and Yuno. Yuno vs Last Order is really a coin toss. Statistics favor Yuno, and Yuno has more in common with Madoka, who will continue to befriend weaklings on her path to the confrontation with Elsie.

Results: Double wideface! Prediction Record: 2/2, 5/6 R3, 102/134 Total

10/12 Predictions:
Elsie and Ika Musume should win. They're high level candidates, and simply have no excuse for losing against the non-elite.

Results: Elsie and Ika. Ika Musume posted one of the highest winning percentages of all time. Prediction Record: 2/2, 7/8 R3, 104/136 Total

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