Preliminary Results

Here's the sorted vote chart.

Top factions by number of preliminary winners:
5 winners: Madoka
2 winners: OreImo, Hanasaku Iroha
1 winner: Milky Holmes, Dog Days, Lotte's Toy, Infinite Stratos, Shakugan no Shana, TWGOK, A Channel

Winners:

Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Their bars on the chart are more obscene than what Homura does when left alone in Madoka's room. In the pre-season preview I raised the possibility that Madoka may follow Sakura Kinomoto's lead to saimoe victory, but this is still far beyond expectations.

Ore no Imouto: Kuroneko and Kirino are the most serious rivals left to contest Madoka dominance. Nobody else has the combination of stereotypical champion characteristics, faction strength, and preliminary success needed to inspire confidence.

Denpa Onna: Erio emerged as an outstanding candidate. Although Mami got ahead of her, she has the most raw votes of any non-magical girl and made the top 5 in percentages. She'll be a very serious threat if tactical voting and cruel draws interfere with Madoka and OreImo.

GOSICK: Much like Erio, Victorique put up impressive numbers (better than even Kirino) and has the potential to arrest the strongest enemies if they get careless.

Ika Musume: Ika delivered the expected finalist-quality numbers and maintained a low profile that will make her an ideal vehicle for attacking the top factions.

Rie Kugimiya: The most infamous VA in saimoe delivers the main characters of Lotte no Omocha and Hidan no Aria to larger vote totals than expected. Shana's victory is no surprise, and she returns as the standard bearer.

Steins;Gate: Despite being a dark horse, Kurisu outperformed some big names. She could make the finals given a favorable draw.

Hanasaku Iroha: Solid performances by several characters brought this faction unexpected success. Keep an eye on them.

Losers:

Infinite Stratos: Although Charlotte may make the finals, I was wrong about the rest of IS. They could be used as sniping tools in the main tournament, but Charlotte is the only important one (and her boobs are a bit too big to fit the champion pattern).

Ano Hana: They're not all that weak, but I was expecting Menma to be a potential finalist, and she defnitely isn't.

Kore wa Zombie: This faction turned into a laughingstock. Calling Eu "tough" in the preview was a big mistake.

Angel Beats!: They're dead.

K-ON: The music stopped and they were too busy with tea and cake to find a chair. Weakness is to be expected from returning champions.

Finalist picks:
Madoka, Homura, Kuroneko, Mami, Erio, Ika Musume, Victorique, Kirino.

Prepared to win groups that don't draw one of the above:
Shana, Sayaka, Kyouko, Kurisu, Mikoto, Charlotte Dunois, Elsie

I'm underrating Sayaka and Kyouko due to the high chance of anti-voting against Madoka characters, even though they beat some of the finalist picks head to head. Elsie had a high percentage, suggesting that she's passionately liked by her fans and will fill the vaccuum when no aces are present. Kirino is rather controversial, so there's a chance she'll be assassinated. Assassination attempts against the Madoka girls are a certainty, but snipers won't have an easy time pulling it off. The tactical voting will focus on Madoka characters and their opponents, so girls who draw Madoka-free groups will have less to worry about. Too bad Hinagiku isn't around this year. And of course, the random draw will wreak havoc with any picks made this early.

Championship Bottom Line:
Madoka will win saimoe. Homura will beat anyone except Madoka, and Kuroneko is their competition.