Main Tournament Groups

The main tournament draw has been completed.

Group strengths by number of first preliminary winners and top 16 characters on my vote percentage chart:
A: 3 winners, 5 top
E: 3 winners, 3 top
F: 4 winners, 2 top
G: 3 winners, 2 top
C: 2 winners, 2 top
H: 1 winner, 1 top
D: 0 winners, 1 top
B: nothing

So it looks like Homura kept resetting the timeline until she could kill all the opponents herself, and give Madoka an easy group.

The only two of my top 8 finalist picks that got in the same group are Homura and Victorique. At least we aren't going to see the championship decided in the early rounds this year. Homura and the other six (Madoka, Kuroneko, Mami, Erio, Ika Musume, Kirino) remain my picks to advance. For the 8th slot, see group B's section below.

Index is fielding an 18-character army as large as Saki's. The only thing saving them from backlash against their greed is the fact that their ace is going up against Homura in round 1.

There are no characters from Fractale in the main tournament. It's official: Fractale is saving the industry from generic moe pandering by being a show in which none of the characters are moe at all.

Now for predictions on how each group might play out.

Group A
The Group of Death. The tournament will kick off with a first round match between Homura, Biribiri, and the unfortunate Sara of Jewelpet. This will be an absolute war in which a coalition of anti-Madoka tactical voters and the formidable Index faction go up against one of the two aces of this year's strongest faction. Homura must pass the same Biribiri test Azusa endured with a 1052-1026 win in 2010.

In Index, there are three forces: Science, magic, and guns. Biribiri has science, but Homura has both magic and guns. Good thing they made some backup clones in case something happens to the original.

In the second round, Homura will probably face Chaos and Eucliwood for an easy win. Victorique, who will dominate her quadrant, will try to solve the mystery of how to beat a Madoka girl in round 3. On the other side of A, Kurisu has little competition until the winner of the Astarotte/Tooru/Mayuri match. Chances are Kurisu will beat Lotte and get frozen by the more dangerous time manipulator, Homura.

Group B
Group B is tough to call, with no superstar characters present. Here's a list of contenders with their vote totals and percentages from the preliminaries:
Tenshi 293 votes/5.87%
Mugi 301/5.45
Erica Hartmann 206/5.11
Gertrud Barkhorn 269/4.96
Sora 302/4.93
Mine Riko 263/4.77
Lingyin Huang 280/4.7
Ryuuko Mifune 276/4.51
Tsukasa Ayatsuji 212/4.49
Merry 184/4.44
Shiori Shiomiya 204/4.14
Mael Strom (Tomonori) 211/3.96
Shino Amakusa 213/3.93
Mio Sakamoto 181/3.83
Charlotte (the witch) 202/3.79
Kanako Kurusu 174/3.68

Tenshi doesn't have the most votes, the top of the list is full of veterans from has-been factions, and Charlotte is a wild card with the Madoka faction strength. Tenshi and Mugi will meet in round 1. This is as up-for-grabs as a group gets. I suppose I'll pick Charlotte simply because it would be hilarious to see Charlotte vs Mami in the finals.

Group C
Madoka (Kaname, not groupmate Koumoto) and Elsie are the only highly ranked characters in this group. Menma, Sanya V. Litvyak, Francesca Lucchini, and Run are present. They can threaten Elsie, and there will be fierce sniping attempts against Madoka, but the magical girl will kill them all with one shot.

Group D
Ika Musume vs Mio. Now you'll see why Mio is afraid of barnacles. Anybody want to draw some doujinshi with this?

Group E
Charlotte of IS faces Erio and Meme in Denpa Onna to Split Vote Otome. Although Charlotte can take it like a man, Erio is just crazy, so bet on the alien (space alien, not foreign alien) to win anyway.

In the first quadrant, Sayaka will take on Saten and Uiharu in a revenge match between the factions of the HomuBiri War. With the advantage of a split vote and faction strength keeping her flying high, Sayaka won't lose to them.

The blue hair battle between Sayaka and Erio will be ferocious and could go either way. I expect anti-Madoka backlash and tactical voting to give Erio the edge, since Sayaka is weaker than the other magical girls.

On the other side of the group, returning champion Azusa faces Haqua of TWGOK. Haqua's popularity is manga-driven, so she'll have a tough time in an anime tournament. Azusa will be fighting with only a fraction of her true strengh due to the championship, but she'll still probably survive until Ohana cleans her up in the next round. However, Ohana will get slapped by Erio.

Group F
Mami will head into a group final match against the winner of Shana vs Nako Oshimizu. Expect that to be Shana, and expect Mami's chances of winning to be as big as her boobs. She will have survived round 3 by the time she faces Shana, so she won't have anything to be afraid of anymore.

Group G
Kyouko, Kirino, Kokoro, Komoe. 'K guys, killer kombination. Kyouko will knock out Kokoro. Kirino will krush Komoe before winning the group and hopefully kombating Kuroneko in the finals, kontinuing the k's.

Group H
Remember Kuroneko's no-contest preliminary group? Here we go again.