Group B Predictions and Results

Predictions for Group B:
8/20: Charlotte, Sora, Lingyin
8/21: Gertrud, Merry, Suzuha
8/22: Ryuuko, Tabane Shinonono, Angelene
8/23: Mugi, Erica, Yuuko

This is a difficult group to predict. It lacks strong characters, so upsets can happen very easily. Many observers expect the group championship to be decided in the Mugi/Tenshi match, but these are both has-beens from quickly fading factions, so this is the group for underdog surprises.

8/20 Coverage:
The next match features Charlotte. And this moemoe witch even has a magical girl to eat. She'll also have to deal with a mean old lady in what is one of the most... unique saimoe matches ever. Predictions: Charlotte has a feast. Sora scores. Lingyin survives Shino in a close match that could've gone either way.

(Now without automatic resizing ruining the linked image)

07:00 Update: Charlotte is in third, and the granny is leading. It looks like Madoka fans are making a tactical decision to sacrifice the witch to avoid provoking a backlash, and the haters are trolling. This remains unpredictable, since there could be anti-voting against the granny near the end of the match. If that happens, it would probably benefit the PreCure. In B05, Tsukasa has established a lead. It's not over until it's over, but I may have overestimated Sora and underestimated Amagami.

17:00 Update: Very strange curves. Sora's has a severe irregularity just after 15:00, but it matches a spike in Hibiki's chart, not Sui's. This doesn't seem to be as simple as one guy spamming Sui-Sora fakes. However, with slope analysis, it's clear that Sui and Sora have issues, while Hibiki is sustaining a healthier pace even without the spikes. At this point, Hibiki looks like a winner and Tsukasa has an advantage. Of course, the only thing we can say with certainty is that there's shenanigans.

Now that the match is over, it turns out Sui's votes were all real. Sora was indeed heavily faked, having 32 fakes at 17:00 and never leading the match, and Hibiki did have a handful of fake spikes. However, despite flatlining for three hours, Sui had only 4 fakes at 17:00 and won the match with an unbelievably funky curve. This is a slap in the face!

Prediction Record: 1/3, 9/15 Total

8/21 Coverage:
Gertrud vs Shiori vs Haruna is an opportunity for one of the stronger strike witches to advance. It would be an embarrassment for her to lose, but strike witches have a tradition of underperforming in saimoe. Merry is an obvious winner, and Suzuha should advance not because she's strong, but because her opponents are just too weak to matter.

Final results: As expected, Gertrud, Merry, and Suzuha win.

Prediction Record: 3/3, 12/18 Total

8/22 Coverage:
Today's match is truly a B-group match, in the sense of B-team. Ryuuko, Tabane Shinonono, and Angelene are probably the least weak. Mai of Nichijou has some fans, but the Index faction has been pretty shameless so far. There's an OreImo girl in the mix, but she's only a minor character, and we haven't seen enough of OreImo yet to tell whether they'll vote up everything from their show. This set of matches does require the disclaimer that everyone is weak enough to make upsets very easy to pull off.

Final results: Pao-Lin beats Shinonono, depsite being a second preliminary character up against a first preliminary entrant. The bigger surprise was Angelene's collapse, falling to third place after maintaining a solid lead throughout most of the day.

Prediction Record: 1/3, 13/21 Total

8/23 Coverage:
The relatively anticipated Mugi-Tenshi match. Both of these factions are over the hill, so the characters won't be anywhere near as strong as they were in the past. It could go either way depending on whose fans are the most apathetic and whose haters bother to vote. Although some believe this match will decide the group winner, I'm suspicious about how each girl would perform against someone like Ryuuko.

The other two matches feature strike witches. They may have some synergy going. Nichijou has been weak, but Mio Sakamoto is beatable. Erica is stronger and should do a good job of holding off Riko Mine. As for Mael Strom, the Kore wa Zombie curse ensures she's already walking dead.

Results: Fake votes were rampant. Yuuko of Nichijou pulled ahead at the last minute for a narrow victory. With the real votes revealed, it becomes clear that Mugi's suspicious curve was filthy with fakery and she never even came close to Kanade. A surprisingly shameful performance from the ojousama of K-ON. K-ON's studio time has run out, and bringing in tea will not be allowed. Angel Beats seems to have retained enough of its former glory to make a run at the group B championship. Look forward to the Tenshi/Ryuushi contest.

Prediction Record: 2/3, 15/24 Total