Group E Predictions and Results

Predictions for Group E:
9/3: Uiharu, Erio, Yukikaze
9/4: Saten, Mitsuki, Saori
9/5: Sayaka, Ayumi, Ohana
9/6: Yui, Honne, Azusa


9/3 Coverage:

Predictions: Erio vs. Charlotte, one of the biggest matches of the first round. Although Charlotte is the top character of a popular show, and Denpa Onna is facing a split vote with Meme, Erio is out of this world. Denpa Onna has been performing well, Infinite Stratos has been average, and Erio herself has the potential to sneak into the championship if the top contenders fall to tactical voting.

Uiharu should pass judgment on Mercelida Ygvar despite Lotte's Toy being hot in saimoe. Uiharu is well-liked and moe independent of faction politics, and Mercelida isn't her show's strongest charcter.

In the final match, Yukikaze's opponents are too weak to win, and somebody has to advance. When you just need something cute to fill the void, Dog Days delivers.

Update: At 15:00, Charlotte and Mayuka are leading over Erio and Yukikaze by significant margins. There are mostly likely many fake votes present, but Charlotte and Mayuka are gaining votes faster throughout the match, not just at the start. I underestimated Onii-chan, which turns out to have a solid fanbase in saimoe. Yukikaze is in trouble. The Charlotte/Erio match is still undecided, since they've been about 60 votes apart throughout the day and the difference in first hour votes is over 60, but Charlotte has a slightly higher (but less consistent) slope and a too-good-to-be-true first hour. Erio will need a combination of a mountain of fake Char votes and a superior last minute rush to make a comeback.

Final Results: Uiharu narrowly escaped assassination by Akari Sakura, 381-379. Saten fans may have been trying to prevent a split by anti-voting Uiharu. Yukikaze came back to edge out Mayuka 300-297 in another desperately close match. However, the headliner Charlotte/Erio match was not so close: 404-373 for Charlotte. Meme had only 40, so even if the split cost Erio 20 votes, that wasn't the difference. The fact is Erio had nowhere near as many votes as Ika Musume or Tenshi, proving that considering her top tier was denpa. It's not clear whether Charlotte had assistance from tactical voters out to kill Erio, but failing to clear a 404 vote hurdle makes her Disappointing Onna.

Fake votes ran rampant again:


Prediction Record: 2/3, 35/51 Total


9/04 Coverage:
Predictions: Saten vs Golden Darkness is today's key match. Saten only appeared in an OVA and many were surprised to hear she qualified for the tournament at all, but Saten fans know no subtlety and will be out in force again. The only danger is Uiharu fans retaliating for yesterday's tactical voting, but if they act anything like Uiharu herself, that won't materialize. Sohara Mitsuki is the only first preliminary entrant in her match, and Saori is an OreImo character, so they should advance safely.

Results: Saten and Sohara win as expected, but Saori was upset by Hirano in a close match. This is surprising since Hirano is a very minor character and Saori's faction is supposed to be powerful, but Saori herself isn't threatening enough to draw snipers. Did OreImo sacrifice Saori to maintain a low profile and avoid assasinations of their main characters, or is their faction failing to live up to the hype and unable to organize? Considering OreImo is now 0-3 in the main tournament, you have to wonder. We'll find out in Kirino's match on 9/14.

Prediction Record: 2/3, 37/54 Total


9/05 Coverage:

Predictions: Magical Girl Sayaka is flying high, and she'll protect saimoe from evil bitches. But will she fall into despair when it turns out that nobody loves her? Yuina Wakura of Hanasaku Iroha will be trying to steal her men today. Although Sayaka is the obvious favorite, Hanasaku has its flagship Ohana in a different match today, so Yuina will benefit from coattail riding. Meanwhile, Sayaka has to worry about snipers, especially Saten fans. Since Ohana's match looks like a walkover that won't require HanaIro to fully mobilize, I'm betting that Yuina won't receive that large of a powerup today and Sayaka will outlast in a bloody fight despite being one of the weaker magical girls.

In the last match, Ayumi should be stronger than Reki, and Feyris seems strangely weak despite being an otaku favorite in her 2D world. Maybe she just didn't get enough screen time.

Results: Fake votes were outrageous today. Even third place Reki got 33 fakes. At 21:00 the fake count was 57 for Sayaka and 150 for Yuina, giving HanaIro an illusionary lead with an hour left. Sayaka delivered a berserker last hour rush to brutally cut down her opponent. We got to see her true power, a 445 vote count that easily exceeds Charlotte and Erio. Ayumi held off a resurgence from Feyris, and Ohana won by miles, gathering a lot of points from Sayaka voters due to her opponents' weakness.

Prediction Record: 3/3, 40/57 Total


9/06 Coverage:

The returning champions, K-ON, field both of their aces today. This will be a purely political match decided not by moe, but by whether K-ON haters organize and put effort into shutting down the K-ON train.

I'm naming Yui and Azusa as my predictions since the synergy of having matches on the same day should help them, K-ON has already had some of their tea spilled in earlier matches to let off tactical steam, and their opponents are mediocre. However, there's a high chance that the haters will show up and the light music club will be forced to disband. The only predictable match is Nohohon's, where she'll outclass two second preliminary entrants.

Results: K-ON has been shamed, disgraced, and ruined for marriage. Both Yui and Azusa got decent vote counts, which would have been enough to win on most days. Minami and Haqua have dedicated fans, but not enough to make this the 5th highest volume day of the tournament without the support of K-ON anti-voters.

Prediction Record: 1/3, 41/60 Total