9/12: Eila, Misaki Ayuzawa, Kokoro
9/13: Index, Komoe, Tsumugi Toudou
9/14: Kirino, Rihoko, Charlotte Yeager
9/15: Haruka, Ayase, Kyouko
The key match in this group will be Kirino's, where Minko could serve as an assassination weapon. Kyouko is also a target, but Ritsu faces the K-ON hate and Kanata is too weak, so she'll probably go the same way as Sayaka and Mami.
9/12 Coverage:
Kokoro is one of the two leaders of the Milky Holmes faction, which has been relatively strong. This season's extra episode should help her considerably. Her opponents, on the other hand, are useless and useless, so Kokoro should win by approximately 130,000,000,000,000 votes. Rose of Dragon Crisis and Eila of Strike Witches will have a tough fight, but Strike Witches have been doing well this year and Dragon Crisis is, well, Dragon Crisis. I think Rose is overrated and Eila could shoot her down. The final match consists of three second preliminary characters. Misaki has the best numbers.
Results: As expected, Kokoro win by 1,300,000,000,000,000 votes. Misaki and Eila also won by large margins.
Prediction Record: 3/3, 50/75 Total
9/13 Coverage:
Index vs Saku. Although I like Saku much more, and she represents the powerful Milky Holmes faction, she's a minor character and Index is one of the relatively more prominent side characters in the Index show. Index also benefits from the presence of Komoe in the next match, where she's up against Yui of Angel Beats. AB has been showing signs of weakness, so the Index pair has the upper hand in both matches. In the third match, Tsumugi Toudou is the only first preliminary entrant.
Update: a few hours into the match, Yui has a huge lead over Komoe. It looks like Angel Beats has come back to life. Komoe has only 62 votes to Index's 81, suggesting that Index voters are turning traitor and voting for Yui. Saku trails Index by 6 votes.
Results: Index and Yui win by large margins. Tsumugi advances. Index had 278 and Komoe had only 178, and data mining shows only 126 Index/Komoe votes compared to 106 Index/Yui ones. This total lack of faction cohesiveness could cause trouble in the Saten/Uiharu match. Yui-nyan was surprisingly strong. In the preliminaries she only got 164 votes, and she added 101 more today. Looks like Angel Beats fans conspired to avoid voting in the preliminaries to gain underdog status. This is good news for Tenshi, whose numbers against Mugi are looking more sustainable now.
Prediction Record: 2/3, 52/78 Total
9/14 Coverage:
The long-awaited Kirino match is here. Will a serious assassination attempt materialize? The odds are in Kirino's favor, and the Iroha girls have been underperforming except for Ohana, but this is the saimoe in which the likes of Shana, Homura, and Erio went out in the first round, so nobody is safe. Especially not someone as controversial as Kirino.
Rihoko and Charlotte have the strongest records and factions in their matches, but Mio of Nichijou is close enough to threaten Rihoko. Leonmitchelli only got in through the second preliminaries, which is a travesty, so she probably won't get proper recognition. Yoshinoya is old enough to be a teacher, but not old enough to reach Sui's granny zone, so she's in saimoe's dead spot.
Update: at 03:00, Kirino and Minchi are exactly tied at a blistering pace of 138 votes. There is clearly fakery going on, and the assassination attempt is underway.
Results: After a fake vote circus, Charlotte won easily, Rihoko won narrowly, and Kirino survived some really lukewarm opposition. What kind of assassination attempt has only 244 real votes after a fake count of 554? What kind of defense has only 328? The tactical voters didn't come out to support Minchi, and HanaIro fell flat. OreImo fans didn't go very far to ensure Kirino's safety against a threatening mountain of fakes. If they were just estimating the real votes based on their fake activity, they were right this time, but will they be able to reach higher levels when it counts? These results suggest that OreImo has been engaging in tactical voting, but lacks the size needed to win by brute force.
Prediction Record: 3/3, 55/81 Total
9/15 Coverage:
Haruka is a first prelim entrant against two second prelims with a split vote. Ayase is far stronger than Nazuna. The headline match is Kyouko's. She's not up against a rookie today, but it looks too easy; she could kill characters like them in an instant. However, there's other factions in this town, and this year's tournament has been an irregular one, so it's difficult to predict what move they'll make. But considering how yesterday's match turned out, expect Kyouko to simply beat the crap out of them.
Results: Haruka/Ayase/Kyouko in an uneventful match.
Prediction Record: 3/3, 58/84
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