9/16: Kanon Nakagawa, Hitoha Marui, Miyako
9/17: Agnese Sanctis, Haruna, Kuroko
9/18: Houki, Ikaros, Kuroneko
9/19: Aria, Asuha Tohara, Perinne
Kuroneko will face a potential assassination from the great detective, Sherlock Shellingford. Unlike Milky Holmes (the detective team), Milky Holmes (the saimoe faction) has been very effective. OreImo didn't show the expected level of firepower in Kirino's match, so this is an opportunity for tactical voters to arrest one of the potential champions.
9/16 Coverage:
Hitoha and Miyako are first preliminary entrants against second preliminary competition. Kanon had stronger numbers than Ookami. Sawako is destined to lose to complete the sweep of K-ON. Celty is another underrated character who should have been competitive, but isn't getting attention from saimoe voters.
Results: Kanon, Hitoha, and Miyako advance.
Prediction Record: 3/3, 61/87
9/17 Coverage:
Agnese and Kuroko will take advantage of combination votes and very weak opposition to score two victories for Index. The remaining match is more complicated. Lala was 9th in the second preliminaries, so she's out, but Haruna and Akira are close in power. Haruna did a bit better in the preliminaries, but her show, Kore wa Zombie, has been an utter embarrassment in saimoe so far. Still, the preliminary vote count was 237-158, the ranks were 8-11, and Yosuga no Sora doesn't have any faction power of its own, so I'll take a chance on Haruna breaking the streak.
Results: The Index pair won. Haruna dominated Akira in a match that was much more one-sided than expected.
Prediction Record: 3/3, 64/90
9/18 Coverage:
The climactic match of round 1: Kuroneko. She'll be up against Sherlock, who had the most preliminary votes of the Milky Holmes cast. Although Milky Holmes has only reached the low 200's in previous matches, they've shown some skillful tactics, and a lot of characters would be safer later on if Kuroneko were assassinated here. Kirino's fairly ordinary total suggests that one could be pulled off if enough tactical voters got on board. However, that kind of mobilization is easier said than done, so Kuroneko is the obvious favorite today.
The other two matches feature Houki and Ikaros, who should win safely.
Update: Kuroneko jumped ahead in the first hour, and maintained the lead throughout the day, although it narrowed over time. The joker who has been flooding matches with fake votes stepped in at 14:00, making it impossible to judge Sher's performance after that point.
Slope analysis on the data we do have is inconclusive: Sher has the highest and Kuroneko has the lowest, but two of Kuroneko's slopes are exactly equal and in second place, pulling up her average. If the first hour's fake votes were too heavily tilted towards Kuroneko, Sher would have the advantage now, but in the more likely case where both were faked, Kuroneko would have a razor thin lead left when time runs out. Conclusion: This is going to be decided by the last minute rush and who got more early fakes.
Results: Kuronkeo won by a healthy 480-378 total. Although Sher's 378 was 50 more than Kirino got in her match, Kuroneko delivered a fearsome onslaught that confirms her status as one of the top championship contenders. It turns out that the early fake votes were split evenly between the candidates, leaving Sher trailing significantly from the start. Kuroneko accelerated later in the day, while Sher slowed down. The fake voters have become quite sophisticated at hiding their actions with a combination of realistic-looking patterns and raging chaos.
Prediction Record: 3/3, 67/93
9/19 Coverage:
Aria is the second strongest character in the group, and Asuha Tohara is up against two second preliminary characters. The third match pits Sena Akagi of OreImo against Perinne of Strike Witches. Both of these characters are weaker than their pedigrees make them seem. As much as I'm tempted to bet against Perinne, she had a stronger preliminary group and a better place within it.
Update: At 05:00, the scores are Perinne 77, Sena 24, and Itsuki 58. Yes, Itsuki, the PreCure who got third in a second preliminary group, is kicking Sena's ass with more than twice her votes. That was unexpected, but it's good news for Perinne.
Results: Aria, Asuha, and Perinne. Prediction Record: 3/3, 70/96
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