Round 1 Outcome

Round 1 winners by votes received and percentage, and product:

Characters that had matches on the same day as the biggest battles, and therefore may have heavily inflated numbers: Suzu Hagimura, Itsuwa, Erica Hartmann, Yuuko Aioi, Yuno, Nao Takanashi, Houki, Ikaros. Houki and Yuno seem to be fairly powerful without that help.

Top 20
Top 16 remaining performances by group, plus Houki, Yuno, Erica Hartmann, and Nao Takanashi, with questionable characters in italics:
A: Mikoto, Astarotte, Victorique
B: Tenshi, Ryuuko Mifune, Erica Hartmann
C: -
D: Ika Musume, Nao Takanashi, Yuno
E: Sayaka, Ohana, Charlotte Dunois, Minami Shimada, Uiharu
F: Mami, Mikan Yuuki, Nano
G: Kyouko
H: Kuroneko, Houki

Ryuuko Mifune did very well, but the ace of her series, Erio, lost in a later match. This development could damage Denpa Onna morale and weaken Ryuuko. Nano was very boderline for the big match day coattail riders list, so she could be overrated as well.

Notable absences from this list are Kirino, Madoka, and Elsie. They each scored solid wins with quiet, stealthy numbers, although Kirino's match was heavily faked and the fact that she didn't use more force is a red flag. Madoka and Elsie face no other strong rivals in group C, so they'll continue to relax until meeting each other in the group final.

Groups A and E are shaping up to be very hotly contested battlegrounds. Frontrunners for the other six groups are Tenshi, Madoka, Ika Musume, Mami, Kyouko, and Kuroneko, with Kirino (who's against Kyouko) deserving an honorable mention. Of my pre-main-draw top 8, Homura and Erio are gone, Kirino and Victorique have tough fights ahead, and Madoka, Kuroneko, Mami, and Ika Musume are looking like winners.

Surprise Losers:
In group F, Shana and Nako Oshimizu both failed horribly despite my high expectations. Shana has broken her honorable tradition, and HanaIro has turned into Ohana and her not very merry band of laughingstocks. Erio got a disappointing 373 votes and Denpa Onna is probably done for. It's hard to call Kore wa Zombie's humiliation a surprise after signs of weakness in the prelims, but I at least expected Eu to get past Yoshino Hide. Haruna did advance, so it wasn't a total loss for them. K-ON was expected to do worse after winning last year, but their total collapse and failure to secure a single win is really out of the ordinary.

Surprise Winners:
The Strike Witches stole everyone's panties. Despite a record of saimoe apathy and a strong trend in favor of rookies, the witches put on a good show. Milky Holmes scored a number of victories despite losing Sher in a bid to assassinate Kuroneko. However, their wins were all low volume, so the damedame faction might be damedamedame against elite opponents. Baka Test, Amagami SS, and Sora no Otoshimono won impressive victories. A Channel was successful, with Yuuko ousting Shana in a major upset. And then, of course, there's Sui.