The Finals Draw

This is the draw, lined up against the 2009 draw:

Interesting how the 4-character shows took the exact same slots. Rie Kugimiya is in the first slot, representing a series with a ! at the end of its name. In the fourth slot, we have tsunderes who like classical European clothing representing something with "no" in the name (Zero no Tsukaima, Ore no Imouto). In the seventh slot we have two happy-go-lucky characters with fairly similar personalities and intelligence levels.

Prediction:

1: Madoka/Sayaka
2: Kyouko/Erica

3: Mami/Astarotte
4: Ika/Kuroneko

Each matchup is carefully chosen based on a complex chain of logic using psychology, history, statistics, conspiracy theory, inside jokes, astronomy, and so on.

Results: The draw didn't go entirely as expected, but some key elements did. Madoka/Sayaka is happening. The Madoka girls are split 3:1. Madoka is well-protected on the side with three Madoka characters, and the biggest threat, Kuroneko, is on the other side. The three Madoka matches are consecutive.

What I got wrong: Kuroneko and Ika Musume are both against Madoka girls, raising the possibility that they'll both be eliminated and the tournament's fate will be sealed in this round. Astarotte and Erica went up against each other instead of being used as fodder. The Madoka intramural is in the back half, not on day one.

Overall, this isn't an ideal setup for the Madoka girls, but it's fairly close.

Past History
Let's review what happened to shows that had more than one quarterfinalist in previous tournaments.

4 finalists: Saki '09, 3:1 split
3 finalists: Clannad '08, 2:1 split, different QF matches
2 finalists: Mai Hime '05, same side, different QF matches
Saki '10, Lucky Star '08, Bamboo Blade '08, Higurashi '07, Lucky Star '07, Rozen Maiden '05, Ashita no Nadja '04, Cardcaptor Sakura '02, all split.

Out of 11 cases, Mai Hime was the only one to have all characters on the same side of the draw. Among the two character cases, splits were favored by an 8 to 1 ratio.

The only case in which two characters from the same series faced each other in the quarterfinals was Saki in '09, where the only way to avoid that would have been having a Saki character in every quarterfinal match.

Of the seven years in which there were shows with more than one quarterfinalist, the winner was from such a show four times. Neither of the shows with 3 or 4 quarterfinalists (Clannad and Saki) won.

Of the 9 shows with 2 contestants, 6 won both matches and 3 lost both matches. None of them had one winner and one loser. Clannad, with 3 contestants, had one win and two losses, while Saki, with 4 in '09, had two winners and two losers, going 1-1 in matches with other shows, and obviously going 1-1 in the all-Saki match.