Finals Preview

The finals begin tomorrow. Here's my prediction:

The real battleground here is Kyouko vs Kuroneko. This is a close match, and by far the most likely place for an upset, if you can call either possible outcome an upset. If Kyouko drives her rival out of town, the Madoka girls will have a monopoly on this tournament's grief seeds. If Kuroneko can seduce the voters, she's headed to the championship match against another Madoka girl, who will have been proven to be mortal in this scenario.

Ika Musume's invasion is facing an uphill struggle: If Kuroneko wins, she won't have that anti-Madoka/underdog status boosting her. If Kuroneko loses, the Madoka faction will have demonstrated enough power to turn her into barbecued calamari. There is potential for an upset here, so Ika still has better odds than she would against Chizuru.

Astarotte vs Erica is the only way to give these two a real match. They're as screwed as a succubus that won't suck once they go up against any of the other six finalists.

Sayaka is the really unlucky one here. Just like in the show, her destiny is to die. Madoka is the worst possible opponent for her, although making Madoka into Sayaka's bride in this round is the best matchup for the faction as a whole on a strategic level.

Vote Volumes
Here's the top ten matches by number of votes cast. Matches marked with a * are the ones where cheating is believed to have occurred. The other matches involving Misaka and Tenshi are listed for comparison.
*1. 1338 Misaka vs Homura, also featuring Sara of Jewelpet
*2. 1129 Misaka vs Victorique
*3. 962 Tenshi vs Mugi vs Yutaka
4. 955 Sayaka vs Uiharu vs Saten
5. 915 Sayaka vs Charlotte
6. 907 Kuroneko vs Sherlock vs Nakatsugawa
7. 844 Ika Musume vs Mio Akiyama vs Lynette Bishop
8. 838 Kyouko vs Kokoro
*9. 835 Tenshi vs Gertrud
10. 817 Charlotte vs Erio vs Meme
...
13. 773 Misaka vs Astarotte
*19. 723 Tenshi vs Tsukasa vs Merry, same day as 715 Misaka vs Hideyoshi vs Chaos
23. 700 Tenshi vs Erica Hartmann
...
64. 360 Madoka Koumoto vs Seraphim vs Rebecca (lowest volume of any match)