Quarterfinals

10/28

Erica won in a shocking upset. The match was riddled with fakes, but in the end it turned out most of the fakes were Lotte's. I have absolutely no idea why Lotte's support dried up and her vote total plummeted to 255, far lower than the 446 she had in the group final. But regardless of how inexplicable it is, the fans aren't giving Lotte the particular kind of sustenance she needs to survive, so Erica is headed to the semifinals. Prediction Record: 0/1, 0/1 Finals, 117/153 Total.

Taking a closer look at Lotte's numbers in the past, we can explain the preliminaries and round 1 wins with the weakness of her opponents. Her round 2 total was low, only 234, and many tactical voters had reason to back her in the group final, but in round 3 she beat Kurisu with 420. Where did that 420 come from?

At first the fact that the match took place on the same day as Tenshi/Gertrud, one of the matches in which cheating occurred, looks suspicious. The cheater had reason to knock out Kurisu to prevent her from threatening Misaka in the group A final. However, data mining shows that Kurisu actually lead 257-197 among Tenshi voters, while Lotte lead 205-138 among Gertrud voters. That's the exact opposite of what should have happened if the cheater were backing Lotte.

10/29
Kyouko vs Kuroneko. This is the match of the quarterfinals. A catastrophic clash that will determine the balance of power, set the tone for the rest of the tournament, and send the winner on a clear path to the championship match. Want some?

Update: In the 8th hour, Kyouko is leading 331-294. Although both curves look to be heavily affected by fakes, Kuroneko's stallout from 5:00 to 6:00 is cause for concern among her fans.

Results: Kyouko wins with an exceptional 657 votes. Kuroneko managed 568, also extremely impressive, but not enough. The match broke 1200 total votes, easily the highest legitimate total and only 113 behind Misaka/Homura.

Both characters saw massive fake voting, with Kyouko's power level going over 900 with fakes included. It was a contested match, and Kuroneko actually lead at one point late in the game. However, Kyouko's unbelievable final rush skewered her opponent.

The straight vertical line in the middle of the last hour looks suspicious at first glance, so I headed over to the voting thread to check it out. From post 541 on, there's a colossal Rosso Fantasma rush. It's a sight to behold, and it looks like legitimate coordinated voting. Japan's Madoka fans are serious business. Prediction Record: 1/1, 1/2 Finals, 118/154 Total.

10/30
Madoka vs. Sayaka. At last, one of the Madoka girls will fall. Burn this moment into your eyes. That's what happens when you become a magical girl.

Warning: Sensitive viewers should look away. The following is an artistic depiction of the bitter, merciless war being waged between these two friends turned rivals. There is savage brutality such as the eating of cake. They're even going so far as to drink tea. The menu has become a critical battleground, as the two furiously grapple to determine which pastry they will share next - just as they share relentless, unforgiving friendly chat. Some spectators fear that this may even devolve into walking home together. Needless to say, no one dares imagine the utter carnage which would be wrought should a sleepover occur.

Update: This graph is just silly. Although Madoka is getting faked heavily, she presumably has a safe lead already, and the last hour rush should favor her heavily.

In the voting thread, we're seeing things that are unnatural, unheard of, and totally preposterous for saimoe. People are using an ascii art template using both characters' names, and some have even gone so far as to vote for both of them. Friendship, in saimoe?

Results: Madoka wins as expected, but the match was surprisingly close at 371-326. Sayaka even had a considerable ASCII art rush near the end. Prediction Record: 1/1, 2/3 Finals, 119/155 Total.

10/31
Ika's invasion makes landfall in the last battlefield of the quarterfinals. Since the magical girl faction was able to overcome Kuroneko, Ika is in deep trouble. She's a resilient specimen who will continue fighting for an inkling of success, so this match isn't over until it's over, but wouldn't it make quite a splash if Ika managed to pull off a long-shot upset? Expect Mami to head to the semifinals after firing a powerful volley of votes.

Update: The vote tracker is down, making this match as murky as the deep sea. After skimming through the voting thread, I think Mami is ahead, but Ika is making her work for it.

Both characters have had early ASCII art rushes. Ikarcher flexes a muscled arm, and Mami has Danza del Magic Bullet with lyrics from her theme song.

There's a large number of fake votes like this one, using codes including "ZImmob" or "BhkgHC". The vast majority of them are faking Ika.
[[AST1131-ZImmobe7-XB]]-00026
<<イカ娘＠侵略!イカ娘>>
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Best code of the day: [[ｲwﾘﾟ ヮﾟﾉｽ ＜投票済でゲソ]]-00293

Results: Mami shows off to the other magical girls with a 710-612 win. This is the first over-700 score of the tournament, exceeding even Misaka's round 1 total against Homura. Ika Musume was very impressive as well, outdoing everyone except Mami, Kyouko, and illegitimate Misaka, but now she's headed back to Lemon. Prediction Record: 1/1, 3/4 Finals, 120/156 Total.

A backup tracker was set up at this site. It'll come in handy if the original tracker has more technical difficulties.