Round 2 EF

9/30 Predictions:

Sayaka and Mami are the favorites today. Sayaka will be going berserk on two of Index's strongest characters: Saten and Uiharu. Saten had a level 5 performance last year, and is second only to Misaka among Index girls. However, there's a history of Saten and Uiharu fans being at odds, including a possible assassination attempt against Uiharu in the first round. It's likely that Index fans will be split, and Sayaka will collect the seed spawned by their grief and inner conflict.

Mami is taking on Nymph and Mikan. Nymph will most likely be thrown under the bus while those who want to take Mami's head back Mikan. However, Mami has two big assets: A massive round 1 performance and a combo vote with Sayaka that will maximize both of their scores. Besides, she has a history of surviving until episode 3, and this is only round 2.

Update: These graphs are as fake as it gets. However, there's some very interesting points. Saten and Mikan are in third place after Uiharu and Nymph got massive floods of votes at the beginnings of the matches. Since then, Index has split and Mikan has been largely thrown under the bus. This is a dream situation for the magical girls, since Saten and Mikan are stronger. I expect the release of real graphs to show that the Madoka faction cleverly deployed fakes to trick their opponents into backing the weaker assassination platforms. There's no organized faction to decide between Mikan and Nymph, and Index is in no way as cohesive as past split-conquerors like Saki were, so everything seems to be going according to plan.

In the later areas of the graph, Sayaka and Mami have consistently steeper slopes than their opponents.

Results: Sayaka and Mami delivered total overkill worthy of their Tiro Finale and berserker rage combination. Mami had the third highest score of the tournament, trailing only Homura and Biribiri, and Sayaka's match had the third highest vote total yet. Both girls took more than 50% of the vote, so splits did not matter. With the fake votes removed, it's clear that the magical girls utterly dominated the match from start to finish, with the only surprises being that Saten and Mikan trailed Uiharu and Nymph from the very beginning in real votes, not just fakes. It seems that the anti-Madoka coalition that brought down Homura lost a lot of steam, but we'll see whether they answer this wakeup call when Kyouko faces Charlotte Yeager. Prediction Record: 2/2, 16/18 R2, 86/114 Total

10/1 Predictions:
Charlotte and Miyafuji. Charlotte clearly outclasses the competition, and Miyafuji has a stronger support base as the Strike Witches main character. Yuuno's round 1 total was somewhat inflated by the draw, which pit her against a K-ON target on Shana day.

Results: Charlotte and Miyafuji won as expected. However, Charlotte struggled with Minami, didn't lead the whole time, and appeared to be losing badly with fake votes included. Although she secured the victory with a late rush, this was a match where she should've been using a lot more firepower rather than hoping Minami would have that many fakes. If Charlotte can't do better than this in round 3, she's going to get chopped up by Sayaka. Prediction Record: 2/2, 18/20 R2, 88/116 Total

10/2 Predictions:
Yuuko is the strongest in her match. The other one is very unclear. Ayumi is a more prominent character than Nohohon, and Dog Days has had trouble mustering a large number of votes, so Ayumi is the pick. However, there's a significant chance that she'll be defeated.

Results: Yuuko and Ayumi. Although their wins were expected, leadership changed place throughout the matches, and Yukikaze made it a real three way battle. Prediction Record: 2/2, 20/22 R2, 90/118 Total

10/3 Predictions:
Ohana and Cecilia. Ohana is an obvious favorite and Haqua was overperforming due to anti-K-ON votes. Cecilia could have a tough time but the IS faction should be able to stave off Shirayuki.

Results: Haqua beat Ohana, scoring a shockingly high 336 votes that has only been exceeded by Tenshi, Misaka, Mami, and Sayaka in round 2. Ohana, who was supposed to have been one of the stronger contenders after HanaIro's early victories, was quite disappointing. I'm not sure I can call this an assassination since Ohana was clearly overrated, but we'll find out whether tactical votes were in play when the TWGOK intramural puts Haqua against Ayumi. Haqua should win that in a landslide.

Cecilia was totally humiliated by Shirayuki. IS, supposedly one of the top factions, failed to even reach 300 and lost one of their best to a side character from a show that was widely regarded as a joke in the west, but apparently is getting a better reception in Japan. Shirayuki's 338 in round 1 could be blamed excess votes from Mami's match, but her 318 today is right behind Haqua. That doesn't sound like tactical voting, even though more suspicious observers will point out that today's unlikely events have all but eliminated two of the Madoka faction's more prominent rivals. Prediction Record: 0/2, 20/24 R2, 90/120 Total