Kirino and Houki. Even though IS has been shamed, violated, and put on their last legs, and they're up against yet another TWGOK girl, Houki should at least be stronger than Kanon. Right? Kirino is one of the top contenders in the tournament. Regardless of how much you'd like to see an assassination, she's got the upper hand against two significantly weaker opponents.
Update: Surprisingly, Index is miles ahead of Kirino, leading 231 to 137 after 14:00. It's obvious that many of Index's votes are fake, but her lead is so large that she could be ahead in real votes. Kirino's curve is badly bent and more unhealthy than an incest obsession, so if she wants to avoid elimination she'll need to get back on track and deliver a late rush with the kind of firepower she's supposed to have.
Results: Kirino has been assassinated. Index posted a strong but not extraordinary 317 votes after subtracting nearly 120 fakes. Kirino got caught with her panties down, scoring a measly 284, far below Kuroneko's round 1 480 and Kirino's own earlier 328. What happened to the OreImo voters? Volume was decent but not exceptional today, reaching 735 as opposed to the 907 votes in Kuroneko's round 1 match. Looks like the OreImo faction has no teamwork, just like everyone expected. Although Kuroneko remains a top candidate, this internal conflict won't help push her over the top later on. In the short term, Kyouko is the obvious beneficiary, as she has a relatively easy path to the finals now. In the long term, everybody except Kirino fans won today. In other news, Houki won easily. Prediction Record: 1/2, 21/26 R2, 91/122 Total
Aria is an obvious winner. Yui vs Haruka is a closer match, where the statistics slightly favor Haruka.
Results: Aria and Haruka. Prediction Record: 2/2, 23/28 R2, 93/124 Total
10/6 Predictions:
Kokoro. OreImo is showing weakness with Kirino's loss, and the remaining ace of Milky Holmes should be aggressively defended. Kokoro will gather 13,000,000,000,000,000 votes to ward off a tough challenge from Rihoko. The other match is extremely difficult to predict, and it's really anyone's game. My statistics point to Asuha Tohara.
Results: Kokoro and Asuha. Prediction Record: 2/2, 25/30 R2, 95/126 Total
Kuroneko is up. Like Kirino, she faces an Index character and a Strike Witch. Unlike Kirino, people will actually vote for her. However, she has the misfortune of having her match on the same day as Kyouko's, and Kyouko will be facing another Strike Witch, witch means bewitching synergy. This has the potential to turn into an Itano circus of tactical voting, fake voting, sniping, and general clusterfuckery.
The witch team and the inevitable fake voting will likely provoke another overkill response from the Madoka faction. Kyouko's voters have obvious reasons to tactically vote against Kuroneko. However, it's unclear whether the Strike Witch or Kuroko is the right assassin to back, so the witch and Index factions won't cooperate and will split votes. Tactical voters will pick one to back, but Kuroneko fans should mount a deep defense. Despite the adversity and high risk level, she's clearly stronger than her two rivals in this match, so I have to predict that Kuroneko will advance along with Kyouko.
The real loser here will be Tsumugi Toudou, who can take consolation in the fact that she's still not quite as badly screwed as Sara of Jewelpet was.
Results: Kuroneko and Kyouko. Prediction Record: 2/2, 27/32 R2, 97/128 Total
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