Congratulations, Toki!

Onjouji Toki is SaiMoe 2012!

11/03: Grand Final

1st 311 Toki Onjouji @ Saki
2nd 291 Kuro Matsumi @ Saki

2012 Group Finals Results

10/16

Saki surprisingly defeated Koromo. Since Koromo showed strength in the final rush and Saki's advantage came in the morning, it's likely that voters from outside the core Saki faction went with the main character.

10/17

Congratulations to Toki, (almost) Saimoe 2012! With a ruthless performance featuring 58.3% of the vote, 583 votes (far more than any non-Saki has gotten) and a 166 vote margin of victory over Akarin~, who was the strongest non-Saki remaining and the only one worthy to contest Saki for the title, Toki can already see the ending.

For those of you who bemoan Saki domination, rejoice: A Saki loss in this tournament would mean another 40 of them running wild next year when they qualify due to the 3 extra episodes. Now that a Saki character is on the verge of being crowned saimoe, they'll be in furiten next time around.

For those of you with good taste, rejoice: One of the most moe characters out there is winning.

10/18

Hisa narrowly beat Cure Peace. Interestingly, Peace had more votes near the end of the match, even though Saki traditionally rushes in the last hour. It was a good attempt, but not quite enough. Saki will have 6 of the 8 quarterfinals spots.

10/19

10/20

10/21

10/22

10/23

Shana made a stunning comeback to overthrow meat. It's possible that the Saki/Rie truce suspected earlier is real: Saki fans tend to vote at the end of the match, the quarterfinals now consist entirely of Saki and Rie characters, and, of course, people who aren't Saki fans have probably given up on the tournament in despair by now.

There's some rumors going around regarding strange activity with vote codes. >>73500690 >>73501193 Bookmarked for future reference, but further investigation is required for now.

The quarterfinals draw:
QF1: Louise De La Valliere Vs Toki Onjouji
QF2: Nodoka Haramura Vs Saki Miyanaga
QF3: Kuro Matsumi Vs Yuu Matsumi
QF4: Shana Vs Hisa Takei

Predicted outcome: Toki beating everyone, Nodoka > Saki, Yuu > Kuro, and Shana beating Hisa before losing to Yuu.

Prediction Record: 5-3 Round 4, R3: 12-4, R2: 23-9, R1: 70-26

2012 Group Finals

We're heading into the group finals with Saki in tenpai. Akarin~ remains the last bastion of defense against their nearly complete hand.

X=Projected Saki winner, O=Non-Saki winner, blank=contested.
[X] Group A: Saki vs Koromo, a playful just-like-in-the-series match (but probably with the opposite outcome this time) in a clinched group.
[ ] Group B: The championship match. Just as we've been expecting since the draw was announced, this is the decisive battle of 2012.
[ ] Group C: Hisa, a mere mid-level Saki character, takes on Cure Peace, who has shown surprising strength. Peace has some chance to turn her scissors into a v for victory here, but Hisa won't go down easily. She only does that for Kyaputen, who's already out of the tournament.
[O] Group D: Louise and Hinata face off in a rare Saki-free group. Nagi performed worse than expected and her core fanbase has eroded. That's not a good sign for fellow Rie character Louise, but Louise should still have no trouble causing some muffled Ohh's.
[X] Group E: Yuu is on fire. She'll win easily.
[X] Group F: Kuro and Kirame are together for more Saki on Saki action, if you know what I mean. Expect the same result as in the show.
[X] Group G: Ako and Nodoka reunite at long last. I haven't written the word Saki enough in this post yet, so Saki Saki Saki.
[O] Group H: The only other Saki-free group. Shana vs Sena will be a good match. Shana is the classic Saimoe type and not to be underestimated, but Meat has strong momentum and could overcome the over-the-hill Rie.

That's 4 Saki finalists, 2 Non-Saki, and 2 slots up for grabs. I'll pick Toki to win B and C for Cure, since Toki is Saki's #1 ace and revenge against Hisa (who has no shot at the crown anyway) would relieve some of the pressure over the outrageous Saki domination.

2012 Round 2 EF

Block E features an assortment of close matches between mid-level girls, and then Matsumi Yuu. She's the hottest girl in the group, and assassinating her won't be easy since her match coincides with Eru vs Ririchiyo, which will drive up voting volume. Since Saki fans were likely among the army responsible for Sanya's 517 round 1 votes, she's not expected to show that level of power again.

F features the other Matsumi sister, who is similarly powerful, but she's up against some dangerous opponents. Kuro will have to deal with Nyarlko in a split vote with Ryuuka. Since Saki has a history of handling splits well, expect Kuro to advance to face the winner of Eru vs Ririchiyo, a clash of two quarterfinals-level girls. Kirame is busy being very cute on the other side of the bracket, so even if Kuro fails, Saki will have a shot at taking the group.

9/28

9/29

An unimpressive showing by Idolm@ster. Not a good sign for Hibiki, who's already in the doghouse in the 9/30 match, trailing by a large margin in a fake vote ridden contest.

9/30

After the large numbers of fake votes were removed, we were left with some surprises: Kuro completely dominated the match, proving that anti-Saki opposition is nowhere near tenpai at the current time. This was a big match, so expect Saki to trample its opponents until the quarterfinals.

Idolm@ster, on the other hand, collapsed. Hibiki should have been able to win against a pair of aging characters, but she turned in a total that was downright miserable in light of the high overall voting volume. Idolm@aster doesn't seem to be lady for the latter stages of the tournament.

10/1

Prediction Record: R2: 18-6, R1: 70-26

2012 Round 2 CD

9/23
The first day of blocks C and D features a showdown between Saki and Idolm@ster. The odds favor Chihaya: Miki stayed very close to Koromo, and Chihaya is at least as strong if not stronger, while Hajime is no match for Koromo. The Saki fans haven't been very vicious so far this round, combos didn't accomplish much in round 1, and the anti-Saki forces should be mustering after the slew of victories in A and B. Knocking Hajime out would guarantee a non-Saki winner in D (the same group in which Kurisu upset Kyaputen). Meanwhile, Cthuuko, while pretty cute, shouldn't force Shizuno to get as fiery as she did against Toshinou Kyouko.

About 8 hours into the match, we have a strange chart. It's sure to be riddled with fakes, and the numbers are in the same ballpark as yesterday's chart. Hajime is accelerating faster than Koromo (counting fakes for both), so I'm starting to wish I hadn't changed my fantasy lineup to bet directly on Chi-chan, but I still expect her to pull though. The other surprise so far is Eila, who just hasn't showed up at all.

The final results are in: Cthuuko beat Shizu and Chihaya blew away Hajime. The Saki girls had incredible numbers of fake votes. Shockingly, the real voters fell for them and didn't turn out, apparently believing their victory was safe. Losing Hajime to Chihaya was understandable, but the loss of Shizuno is a major embarrassment to the usually disciplined Saki faction (even though Cthuuko is pretty moe). There is now blood in the water, and I'm not talking about Cthuuko nosebleeding when she sees Nyarlko in a swimsuit.

I was certainly off on this one. I briefly considered making a joke about cardboard if the result was neither Shizu>Hajime nor Shizu>Chihaya in fantasy, but didn't because it seemed too unrealistic. That's Saimoe for you.

9/24

Kurisu lost with 197 votes, a measly 44.8% of what she got in round 1, with fake voting happening on both sides. This confirms that her victory was nothing but an assassination perpetrated by someone who didn't want Mihoko going anywhere. Suspects include the Rie fans, who have both Nagi and Louise in the same group. Rie and Hayate had some nasty history with Saki in previous tournaments.

9/25

9/26

Prediction Record: R2: 14-2, R1: 70-26

2012 Round 2 AB

Round 2 is kicking off, and we've got some heavier hitting matchups coming. Group A is looking more like Episode of Side A, since it's full of Sakis. Saki herself, Tacos, and Koromo are set to advance, while the last spot will be decided by a close battle between Inami, Kobato, and Lemon. Kobato probably has the upper hand, but with the slew of Sakis surrounding her and Toki's match on the same day, anything could happen.



Group B continues its march towards the year's true championship match: Toki vs Akarin~. Akari will get a little more attention this round since she'll be giving the former champion Azusa an honorable discharge. The Sakis will probably try to assassinate their rival here, but Akari should evade them.

9/19

9/20

Toki dominates as expected, and Saki fans didn't assassinate Kobato, clearly confident that she won't be a threat. Akari, on the other hand, certainly will be one. Their real opportunity to assassinate her will come in round 3 with Mei, but today's match with Azucat promises to be interesting nonetheless. If it doesn't turn into an all-out war it'll be safe to assume Saki will be taking it easy in the remaining non-critical matches this round, but if it does, we'll get a preview of Akari's true power.

Toki-nyan.

9/21

Akarin~ won very easily. There's less tactical voting going on this year than I expected.

9/22

Prediction Record: R2: 8-0, R1: 70-26

2012 Round 1 GH

9/10

It's Momo's stage today. Mayoi and Yukiho are at a disadvantage against the Sakis despite comboing with Tsukihi, and Ako and Nodoka are preparing to follow up tomorrow. There's a couple other dangerous girls in G, especially Yamada, but Saki is clearly the team to beat in this group.

The big unknown is Ika Musume: her VA is a central figure in a scandal, so there's potential for backlash against the character. It'll be impossible to tell whether it'll be significant until the match happens, but considering Ika's strength last year, she should remain powerful.

Tie day. The chart is slightly inaccurate, and it matters this time: Tsukihi and Rea both got 270 and will both advance to the next round. Meanwhile, Aria got 263 and as expected of Momo, she managed to keep a low profile with 261 despite being the most moe by far.

9/11

9/12

Kotori's still got it. Her commanding performance (albeit on an especially slow day) shows teamwork among Idolm@ster fans, who were slow to arrive in Saimoe but have since firmly established themselves. It'll be interesting to see how they handle the A-rank stage when they face big names in the upcoming rounds.

9/13

9/14

9/15

Missed the final charts for these two days. I'll update this if I find them.

9/16

9/17

Prediction Record: 70-26

2012 Round 1 F

9/05

Not much action from Nisemonogatari, which isn't a good sign for Nadeko, who will have a chance to assassinate Nyarlko soon. Ryuuka won with a fairly ordinary 279, showing that neither the Saki fans nor haters came out in full force. The Sakis, who have a history of handling splits with efficiency, are clearly heading into the round 2 split vote against Nyarlko or Nadeko with confidence.

9/06

Haruka turned into Dark Haruka at the end of the match and cut down Ohana, who had been keeping it close in the early stages. Saki's Niwaka lost to Seraphim, who was probably powered by Saki haters looking to keep minor characters out of round 2. Meanwhile, Eru because curious about her opponents' orifices and violated them in frightening ways. If this keeps up, she could exorcise Ririchiyo next round.

9/07

9/08

Prediction record: 50-22