Group A Predictions and Results

This is a comparison of the fake vote and real vote charts. Both of the matches involving girls named Ai had different winners after fakes were removed.

Predictions for the group A matches:

8/16: Homura Akemi, Suzu Hagimura, Itsuwa
8/17: Cordelia Glauca, Eucliwood Hellscythe, Mayuri Shiina
8/18: Victorique De Blois, Miya Tachibana, Tooru
8/19: Chaos, Kurisu Makise, Astarotte Ygvar

8/16 Coverage:

This in-progress vote chart for the Homuhomu-Biribiri match is extremely suspicious, and we can assume there are many fake votes in play. One method for estimating the number of real votes for each character is drawing lines matching the slopes of chart areas where the votes are coming in steadily, not in bursts. The slopes are mixed, showing a match that's still too close to call. However, due to the strangely flat area on Homura's chart and the strong rally Biribiri has maintained in the last two hours, Biribiri has the fastest slope and Homuhomu as the slowest. The Railgun seems to have a small advantage at this point, and Homura will need to perform better later in the day if she wants to salvage this timeline.

Update:

There were enormous amounts of fake votes on both sides. Just look at the Ai/Suzu difference. Rather than accelerating later in the day, Homura slowed down, and the two main contestants combined for only 1281 votes: 696 Mikoto, 585 Homura. Last year's Azusa-Mikoto match, which was of similar importance but took place in round 3, had 2078 votes between the top two. The Hinagiku assassination of 2010 had 1169, and the 2009 Mio sniping had 1089. Code generator restrictions were extremely tight throughout the day, keeping many interested voters on the sidelines and making campaigning on non-Japanese sites useless. Apparently, with foreign voters out of the mix, we're doomed to see the same veteran characters from the same series with 18 entrants knocking out better liked (see preliminary group 3) characters through tactical voting and anti-voting. So much for the complaints about foreign voting patterns.

Prediction Record: 2/3

8/17 Coverage:
Astraea and Himeji won in a display of shockingly bad taste (Cordelia isn't much better, but how can people live with themselves after not voting for Tutturu?). Toyotomi Hideyoshi also advanced as Eu and Kore wa Zombie disappoint despite already-lowered expectations.

With Cordelia's loss, we can officially declare that the Milky Holmes faction, which had high hopes after Sherlock's preliminary victory, has lost their toys. Sher herself will still be worth watching, since she may be used as an assassination tool against Kuroneko.

Steins;Gate is no longer a compelling dark horse after failing to defend Mayuri. Kurisu will be stronger, but not strong enough to deal with the brutal competition in Group A.

Prediction Record: 0/3, 2/5 Total

8/18 Coverage:
Victorique, Miya, and Tooru are the clear favorites. Ricotta could put up some resistance, and Ume-sensei is always an interesting character to watch, being the avatar of a real person.

Prediction Record: 3/3, 5/9 Total

8/19 Coverage:

Chaos, Kurisu Makise, and Astarotte Ygvar are the favorites today. None of them have strong opponents. Chaos isn't very strong herself, but after Astraea's victory, she should be able to handle Kasane.

The vote count at 09:00 shows Lotte dominating as expected, but both of the other matches have taken strange turns. Blue Rose, a second preliminary entrant who trailed Cordelia Glauca by nearly 160 votes in preliminary group 16, is putting first preliminary 7th placer Chaos on ice, even though Astraea beat Cordelia easily. But the real issue is the Kurisu/Ai match: Kurisu, who obviously deserves to win, is trailing by 34 points. Is this a conspiracy by the organization? Have they lost all sense of taste?

Fortunately, Kurisu (and Chaos) came back at the last minute with brilliant rushing to grasp victory. Ai was receiving a number of fake votes. Clearly, the organization was attempting to create a dystopian future without Kurisu in saimoe, but a group of heroic 2channers managed to stop them and restore the world to its proper state.

Prediction Record: 3/3, 8/12 Total